A government consultant with close ties to the civilian leadership in the Pentagon said that Bush was “absolutely convinced that Iran is going to get the bomb” if it is not stopped. He said that the President believes that he must do “what no Democrat or Republican, if elected in the future, would have the courage to do,” and “that saving Iran is going to be his legacy.”
One former defense official, who still deals with sensitive issues for the Bush Administration, told me that the military planning was premised on a belief that “a sustained bombing campaign in Iran will humiliate the religious leadership and lead the public to rise up and overthrow the government.” He added, “I was shocked when I heard it, and asked myself, ‘What are they smoking?’ ”
I posted this and then it occured to me that in order for them to get away with this, the administration is likely to try an attack before November. Why? Because with the election in November, Republicans are possibly going to lose support in at least one body of Congress. If that happens, then it will create an interesting showdown with Democrats who are unlikely to support a third front in war.How could this work? My guess is that, as I've already stated, the administration will begin bringing home troops from Iraq this summer. They want to withdraw as many as they can afford to bring home for political reasons. Bringing home the troops will be popular and Bush's team hopes that will boost their image before the elections. By using the tactic of a sustained bombing campaign, Bush will be able to have his cake and eat it, too. He'll bring the troops home and unleash a bombing strike in Iran (once again, pumping money into the defense industries that he so loves).
Want to bet that the bombing begins in early October? That would be a month or so before elections. It would allow Bush to argue that he needs Americans to pull together and re-elect a Republican Congress in both houses for maximum support for his policies in a time of war. Between this argument and bringing many of the troops home, Bush's team hopes to pull out the win for Congress.
Bush will argue that his positions are justified by security needs for the U.S. He may believe that, but nothing could be further from the truth. Karl Rove doesn't give a rat's ass about Iraq, Iran, or Afghanistan. The only thing that cold motherfucker cares about is winning elections. He knows that the President's numbers are way down - so far so that Republican candidates aren't even allowing their pictures to be taken with Bush or Cheney. He also knows that Republicans in Congress, particularly in the House, have brought some problems on themselves through the K Street project, Abramoff, Delay, Cunningham, and Ney (et al). Republicans are desparate. What's the tried and true course towards election victory? Security concerns. Rove even said so in recent speeches. What better way to raise those concerns than begin a new front of war for America? The real question now is, will Americans fall for it or allow it to happen?